ЧЕТВЕРТАЯ ВСЕРОССИЙСКАЯ ОТКРЫТАЯ ЕЖЕГОДНАЯ КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ДИСТАНЦИОННОГО ЗОНДИРОВАНИЯ ЗЕМЛИ ИЗ КОСМОСА (Физические основы, методы и технологии мониторинга окружающей среды, природных и антропогенных объектов)
IV.G.322
Algorithm of the eruption prediction of Bezymianny volcano (Kamchatka)
Sergey L.Senyukov
Kamchatkan Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the RAS
The Kamchatkan Branch of Geophysical Survey (KBGS) RAS began to monitor an activity of the Kamchatkan volcanoes in near real-time regime in 2000 (http://emsd.iks.ru/~ssl/monitoring/main.htm) using 3 remote methods:
- seismic monitoring;
- visual or video observation;
- AVHRR sensor (NOAA satellite) remote sensing.
7 eruptions of Bezymianny volcano were registered and investigated from February 2000 to February 2004. As a result of this experience, on May 2004, an algorithm for eruption prediction was determined.
Algorithm for eruption prediction:
1) The probability of an eruption is equal 0%, if: a) a seismic activity is “normal, background” (less 10 shallow earthquakes per day with local magnitude 0.752) The probability of an eruption is equal 50%, if seismic activity is above “background”.
3) The probability of an eruption is 90% for the next 30 days if seismic activity is above “background” during last 3 days and seismic activity increases with the growth of the maximum temperature of the thermal anomaly at the Bezymianny cone relative to the maximum temperature of the thermal anomaly of the lava flow at the New Tolbachik Volcano (II) 1975.
4) The probability of an eruption is 100% for the next 7 days if seismic activity is above “background”, and rock avalanches (more than 5 per day) are detected by the KBGS seismic network. Inflation of the Bezymianny dome is the likely cause of an appearance of the rock avalanches.
5) The type and size of the future eruption can be estimated based on the intensity of the preceding seismicity. The intensity of the preceding seismicity is approximately proportional to the intensity of the eruption.
6) Recent seismic telemetric network allows us to carry out these investigations only if the amplitude of volcanic tremor at nearby Kluchevskoy volcano is less than 1 mpc at station CIR.
All four last eruptions of Bezymianny volcano (June 2004, January 2005, November 2005 and May 2006) were predicted using this algorithm without false alarm. All four predictions were passed to participants of KVERT project. For the 2005-2006 events, predictions were passed to Kamchatkan Branch of Russian Advisory Council. This algorithm was tested by a joint, international, real-time experiment in November 2005 and included participants from the Kamchatkan Branch of Geophysical Survey, the Alaska Volcano Observatory, and the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.
Дистанционные методы в геологии и геофизике
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